Introductory description

The module aims to providing training on methods that aid decision making when managers face an uncertain future.

Module web page

Module aims

Outline syllabus

This is an indicative module outline only to give an indication of the sort of topics that may be covered. Actual sessions held may differ.

Topics covered are:

1- Basic tools for forecasting, Decision Making when facing an uncertain future.

2 – Methods for short-term forecasting, including product demand forecasting. How and when to add judgement to statistical forec asts. Extrapoltive methods, forecastign using regression methods, ARIMA models.

3 - How to compute probabilistic forecasts. Economic forecasting. How to measure macroeconomic uncertainty using news-based indexes, predcitiability of financial variables.

4 – Methods for long-term forecasting. Probabilistic Forecasting. Climate forecasting.

Learning outcomes

By the end of the module, students should be able to:

• Measure macroeconomic uncertainty and understand its impact on decision making.
• Choose the forecasting method adequate to the problem at hand, including when to add judgment, use scenario analysis and/or use statistical methods.
• Compute short-term forecasts for product demand and macroeconomic variables, and use scenario analysis to aid long-term forecasting.
• Analyse time series data.

Indicative reading list

Reading lists can be found in Talis

Subject specific skills

Use probabilistic forecasts for decision making.

Transferable skills

Write effectively.