IB915-15 Forecasting for Decision Makers
Introductory description
The module aims to providing training on methods that aid decision making when managers face an uncertain future.
Module aims
The module covers methods for short-term and long-term forecasting of product demand and macroeconomic variables. The module discusses how forecasting aids decision making.
Outline syllabus
This is an indicative module outline only to give an indication of the sort of topics that may be covered. Actual sessions held may differ.
Topics covered are:
1- Basic tools for forecasting, Decision Making when facing an uncertain future.
2 – Methods for short-term forecasting, including product demand forecasting. How and when to add judgement to statistical forec asts. Extrapoltive methods, forecastign using regression methods, ARIMA models.
3 - How to compute probabilistic forecasts. Economic forecasting. How to measure macroeconomic uncertainty using news-based indexes, predcitiability of financial variables.
4 – Methods for long-term forecasting. Probabilistic Forecasting. Climate forecasting.
Learning outcomes
By the end of the module, students should be able to:
- Measure macroeconomic uncertainty and understand its impact on decision making.
- Choose the forecasting method adequate to the problem at hand, including when to add judgment, use scenario analysis and/or use statistical methods.
- Compute short-term forecasts for product demand and macroeconomic variables, and use scenario analysis to aid long-term forecasting.
- Analyse time series data.
Indicative reading list
Ord, K., Fildes, R. and N. Kourentzes (2017), Principles of Business Forecasting 2nd Edition, Wessex Press. Inc.
Silver, Nate (2013) The signal and the noise: the art and science of prediction. Penguin.
Hydman, R and Athanasopoulos, F. (2013) Forecasting: principles and practice.
Williamson, S. D. (2014) Macroeconomics. 5th edition. Pearson. (two chapters only).
Bloom, N. (2014) Fluctuations in Uncertainty. Journal of Economic Perspectives. 28:153-176.
Wright, G. and Goodwin, P. (2009) Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability: enhancing the scenario method. International Journal of Forecasting. 25: 813-825.
Subject specific skills
Use probabilistic forecasts for decision making.
Transferable skills
Write effectively.
Demonstrate developed presentation and teamwork skills.
Study time
| Type | Required |
|---|---|
| Lectures | 13 sessions of 1 hour (9%) |
| Seminars | 10 sessions of 1 hour (7%) |
| Online learning (scheduled sessions) | 4 sessions of 1 hour (3%) |
| Private study | 49 hours (33%) |
| Assessment | 74 hours (49%) |
| Total | 150 hours |
Private study description
Self study to include pre-reading
Costs
No further costs have been identified for this module.
You do not need to pass all assessment components to pass the module.
Assessment group A3
| Weighting | Study time | Eligible for self-certification | |
|---|---|---|---|
Assessment component |
|||
| Individual Assignment | 80% | 59 hours | Yes (extension) |
Reassessment component is the same |
|||
Assessment component |
|||
| Group Work Report | 20% | 15 hours | No |
Reassessment component |
|||
| Individual assignment | Yes (extension) | ||
Feedback on assessment
comments to group work report and individual assignment.
Courses
This module is Optional for:
- Year 1 of TIBS-N120 Postgraduate International Business
- Year 1 of TIBS-N1C3 Postgraduate Taught (Financial Management)
- Year 1 of TIBS-N1C2 Postgraduate Taught Business (Accounting & Finance)
- Year 1 of TIBS-N1B0 Postgraduate Taught Business (Marketing)
This module is Option list C for:
- Year 1 of TIBS-N2N1 Postgraduate Taught Management