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IB98E-15 Forecasting

Department
Warwick Business School
Level
Taught Postgraduate Level
Module leader
Katy Hoad
Credit value
15
Module duration
9 weeks
Assessment
25% coursework, 75% exam
Study location
University of Warwick main campus, Coventry

Introductory description

The module provides an introduction to current quantitative forecasting methods, and its overall aim is to develop practical competence in their use.

Module web page

Module aims

The module provides an introduction to current quantitative forecasting methods, and its overall aim is to develop practical competence in their use. The module concentrates on models for short term forecasting, as these illustrate all the basic principles of analysing, comparing and extrapolating different models.

Outline syllabus

This is an indicative module outline only to give an indication of the sort of topics that may be covered. Actual sessions held may differ.

Introduction to Forecasting
Time Series and their Components
Regression with Time Series Data
Smoothing methods
The Box-Jenkins (Arima) Methodology

Learning outcomes

By the end of the module, students should be able to:

  • Research a relevant topic using available literature sources and present cogently and effectively at masters level.
  • Demonstrate a firm understanding of the ideas and principles underlying the most commonly used forecasting models.
  • Comprehensively understand the relevant issues and measures available to aid selection of the most suitable models.

Indicative reading list

Amstrong, J. S. (Ed.) (2001). Principles of Forecasting: a handbook for researchers and practitioners. Kluwer.
Chatfield, C. (2004) The Analysis of Time Series. Chapman & Hall.
Hanke, J.E. and Wichern, D.W. (2009). Business Forecasting. Pearson Prentice Hall.
Makridakis, S. Wheelwright S.C. and Hyndman, R.J. (1998). Forecasting, Methods and Applications, 3rd ed. John Wiley & Sons.
Ord, K. and Fildes, R. (2013). Principles of Business Forecasting, International ed, South-Western Cengage Learning.
Online textbook:
Forecasting: Principles and Practice: https://www.otexts.org/fpp
Website:
http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/

Subject specific skills

Apply several forecasting models to real data sets, conducting a range of analyses using appropriate software.
Investigate real data sets and be able to report on the findings from a piece of modelling and analysis in practical terms.

Transferable skills

Group working skills
Communication skills
Numeracy and IT skill

Study time

Type Required
Lectures 8 sessions of 2 hours (11%)
Other activity 10 hours 30 minutes (7%)
Private study 49 hours 30 minutes (33%)
Assessment 74 hours (49%)
Total 150 hours

Private study description

Private study to include preparation for lectures, seminars and lab sessions

Other activity description

Laboratory sessions - 7 x 1.6 hrs

Costs

No further costs have been identified for this module.

You do not need to pass all assessment components to pass the module.

Assessment group D1
Weighting Study time Eligible for self-certification
Assessment component
Group coursework 25% 19 hours No
Reassessment component is the same
Assessment component
On-campus Examination 75% 55 hours No
  • Answerbook Pink (12 page)
  • Students may use a calculator
Reassessment component is the same
Feedback on assessment

Assessments are graded using standard University Postgraduate Marking Criteria and written feedback is provided. Feedback for individual essays includes comments on a marksheet. Overall percentage marks are awarded for examination performance and general examination feedback is provided to the cohort.

Past exam papers for IB98E

Courses

This module is Optional for:

  • Year 1 of TIBS-N1N3 Postgraduate Taught Business Analytics