Introductory description
This module runs in Term 1 and aims to demonstrate how to build Bayesian models and to train students in the rudiments of decision analysis.
Students will be given advanced material on causality for independent study and examination.
This module is available for students on a course where it is a listed option and as an Unusual Option to students who have completed the prerequisite modules.
Prerequisites:
Statistics Students: ST218 Mathematical Statistics A AND ST219 Mathematical Statistics B
NonStatistics Students: ST220 Introduction to Mathematical Statistics
Results from this module can be partly used to determine exemption eligibility in the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) module CS1 Actuarial Statistics.
Module web page
Module aims
Bayesian statistics is one of the fastest growing areas in statistics. With the advance of computer technology it is now a highly practical methodology for addressing many important high dimensional decision problems as well as being underpinned by a sound mathematical foundation. It is especially useful when some of the components of uncertainty have only sparsely collected data associated with them, so that expert judgements need to be incorporated.
Outline syllabus
This is an indicative module outline only to give an indication of the sort of topics that may be covered. Actual sessions held may differ.
 Loss/payoff functions.
 Posterior updating.
 Idiot Bayes.
 Decision trees and the extensive form solution.
 Utility functions — use and elicitation.
 Multiattribute utility functions.
 Forecast scoring.
 The normal form solution.
 DAGS.
 Conjugate priors.
 Causality.
Learning outcomes
By the end of the module, students should be able to:
 Understand how Bayesian models are built and evaluated. Appreciate idiot Bayes models and issues such as calibration.
 Perform basic priors to posterior analyses. To perform discrete priors to posterior inference and Beta and Dirichlet conjungate analyses.
 Understand the foundation of utility theory and apply it in a multiattribute context. Be able to elicit a utility function.
 Understand qualitative widely in terms of conditional independence. Appreciate the structuring of models through DAGs. Be able to estimate probabilities in DAGs using conjugate product Dirichlet distributions.
 Understand by independent study selected advanced research material.
Indicative reading list
View reading list on Talis Aspire
Subject specific skills
TBC
Transferable skills
TBC
Study time
Type 
Required 
Optional 
Lectures 
30 sessions of 1 hour (20%)

2 sessions of 1 hour

Tutorials 
4 sessions of 1 hour (3%)


Private study 
116 hours (77%)


Total 
150 hours 

Private study description
Study of advanced topic, weekly revision of lecture notes and materials, wider reading, practice exercises and preparing for examination.
Costs
No further costs have been identified for this module.
You must pass all assessment components to pass the module.
Students can register for this module without taking any assessment.
Assessment group B3

Weighting 
Study time 
Inperson Examination

100%


The examination will contain one compulsory question on the advanced topic and four additional questions of which the best marks of TWO questions will be used to calculate your grade.
 Answerbook Pink (12 page)
 Students may use a calculator

Assessment group R2

Weighting 
Study time 
Inperson Examination  Resit

100%


The examination will contain one compulsory question on the advanced topic and four additional questions of which the best marks of TWO questions will be used to calculate your grade.
 Answerbook Pink (12 page)
 Students may use a calculator

Feedback on assessment
Solutions and cohort level feedback will be provided for the examination.
Past exam papers for ST413
Antirequisite modules
If you take this module, you cannot also take:

ST30115 Bayesian Statistics and Decision Theory
Courses
This module is Optional for:

TMAAG1PE Master of Advanced Study in Mathematical Sciences

Year 1 of
G1PE Master of Advanced Study in Mathematical Sciences

Year 1 of
G1PE Master of Advanced Study in Mathematical Sciences

Year 1 of
TMAAG1PD Postgraduate Taught Interdisciplinary Mathematics (Diploma plus MSc)

Year 1 of
TMAAG1P0 Postgraduate Taught Mathematics

Year 1 of
TMAAG1PC Postgraduate Taught Mathematics (Diploma plus MSc)

Year 1 of
TMAAG1PF Postgraduate Taught Mathematics of Systems

Year 1 of
TSTAG4P1 Postgraduate Taught Statistics

USTAG300 Undergraduate Master of Mathematics,Operational Research,Statistics and Economics

Year 3 of
G300 Mathematics, Operational Research, Statistics and Economics

Year 4 of
G300 Mathematics, Operational Research, Statistics and Economics
This module is Core option list A for:

USTAG300 Undergraduate Master of Mathematics,Operational Research,Statistics and Economics

Year 3 of
G30C Master of Maths, Op.Res, Stats & Economics (Operational Research and Statistics Stream)

Year 3 of
G30C Master of Maths, Op.Res, Stats & Economics (Operational Research and Statistics Stream)

USTAG301 Undergraduate Master of Mathematics,Operational Research,Statistics and Economics (with Intercalated

Year 3 of
G30G Master of Maths, Op.Res, Stats & Economics (Operational Research and Statistics Stream) Int

Year 4 of
G30G Master of Maths, Op.Res, Stats & Economics (Operational Research and Statistics Stream) Int
This module is Option list A for:

Year 4 of
USTAG300 Undergraduate Master of Mathematics,Operational Research,Statistics and Economics

Year 5 of
USTAG301 Undergraduate Master of Mathematics,Operational Research,Statistics and Economics (with Intercalated

USTAG1G3 Undergraduate Mathematics and Statistics (BSc MMathStat)

Year 3 of
G1G3 Mathematics and Statistics (BSc MMathStat)

Year 4 of
G1G3 Mathematics and Statistics (BSc MMathStat)

USTAG1G4 Undergraduate Mathematics and Statistics (BSc MMathStat) (with Intercalated Year)

Year 4 of
G1G4 Mathematics and Statistics (BSc MMathStat) (with Intercalated Year)

Year 5 of
G1G4 Mathematics and Statistics (BSc MMathStat) (with Intercalated Year)
This module is Option list B for:

Year 4 of
USTAG304 Undergraduate Data Science (MSci)

Year 4 of
UCSAG4G3 Undergraduate Discrete Mathematics

Year 3 of
USTAG300 Undergraduate Master of Mathematics,Operational Research,Statistics and Economics

USTAG301 Undergraduate Master of Mathematics,Operational Research,Statistics and Economics (with Intercalated

Year 3 of
G30E Master of Maths, Op.Res, Stats & Economics (Actuarial and Financial Mathematics Stream) Int

Year 4 of
G30E Master of Maths, Op.Res, Stats & Economics (Actuarial and Financial Mathematics Stream) Int
This module is Option list E for:

Year 4 of
USTAG300 Undergraduate Master of Mathematics,Operational Research,Statistics and Economics

Year 5 of
USTAG301 Undergraduate Master of Mathematics,Operational Research,Statistics and Economics (with Intercalated
This module is Option list F for:

Year 3 of
USTAG300 Undergraduate Master of Mathematics,Operational Research,Statistics and Economics

USTAG301 Undergraduate Master of Mathematics,Operational Research,Statistics and Economics (with Intercalated

Year 3 of
G30H Master of Maths, Op.Res, Stats & Economics (Statistics with Mathematics Stream)

Year 4 of
G30H Master of Maths, Op.Res, Stats & Economics (Statistics with Mathematics Stream)